This Article is written by Hamna Fahad, a Fourth Year Law Student of Aligarh Muslim University

What is the Census?

Census refers to the uniform and comprehensive count of an entire population of a country whereby the nation, size, distribution, demographic, and socio-economic characteristics can be fathomed. In India, this job comes under the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner which falls under the Ministry of Home Affairs. The Census in India is conducted keeping in view the provisions of the Census Act of 1948 and is taken once a decade. Since 1872, India has completed 15 successive censuses.[1]

India’s Delayed Census and Its Impact on Governance

A very crucial exercise in data collection - India's decennial census has been postponed indefinitely as the nationwide lockdown continues to occupy most of the country with the second wave of COVID-19. This is the first time in the 150-year history of the census that such a delay has happened. It was to start from mid-2021. This setback has raised questions over its impact on policymaking, governance, and resource distribution in a country now recognized to be the most populous in the world, as per United Nations estimates from April 2023. As India embarks upon its first-ever digital census, challenges surrounding the execution of this census as well as the implications of the delay loom large.[2]

Historical Background of India’s Census

India's census started in 1881 and has been conducted every decade since. This makes it one of the oldest and largest statistical exercises in the world. The last census was held in 2011 and was due in 2021. It was scheduled to take place in 2021 but didn't start due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is still pending. This delay plus the decision for this census to be conducted digitally raises debate as to whether the country was ready to carry out the digital census and whether it would be effective or not. For the first time, the census will provide an option for self-enumeration, to be exercised through a mobile app, available in 16 Indian languages.

Although the digital census promised to make collection easier and less pricey, there were several issues concerning accessibility. Huge questions regarding underrepresentation persisted because only half of India's population owns a smartphone, and women lagged behind men in internet use. The experts issued another concern when they said that data privacy might be compromised because of India's historical record of data breaches.[3]

Key Features of the Digital Census

The digital census boasts several new features aimed at modernizing the whole process of data collection. Citizens will be able to fill in census forms online using a special, bespoke mobile app saving the government much time and resources by potentially bypassing on-the-ground enumerators.

However, experts like independent law researcher Usha Ramanathan caution that for many Indians, going digital may be a threat and will leave behind poor Indians and Indian communities who have no access to it or do not have digital literacy. Ramanathan refers to the people's problems that were faced to get access to the CoWIN site in the COVID-19 vaccination program and says this can happen with the digital census as well.

There also is the issue of the accuracy and legitimacy of the digital method. It has been reported that the levels of errors, that could be sourced in data collection, tend to be amplified and a very significant issue is data privacy. Indeed, India has faced huge breaches where citizens' data were sold on the dark web, resulting in the erosion of trust in the security of such a vast digital operation.

Concerns About the Delay

Indefinite postponement of the census date has brought in the fears whether governance and resource distribution will be impacted. Census data forms the very basis of welfare policy formation, apart from effective government program implementation. For instance, the highly subsidized Public Distribution System, which reaches large sections of Indians, depends entirely on census data for stratifying beneficiaries. The absence of the revised census will mean programs such as NFSA-PDS will face the fury of incorrect targeting of its beneficiaries. Experts, like Dr Reetika Khera, fear this will leave millions of people out of welfare schemes that are critical in their lives.

The delay also affects development planning at the national as well as state levels. Since census data are used in resource allocation by the government, the outdated figures in 2011 will surely not be representative of the current trend of population distribution. This may, therefore, lead to potential imbalances in the funding disbursed to states and regions, which further worsens the stumbling efforts in addressing inequality and poverty.[4]

Impact on Delimitation and Political Representation

Political representation is also very important with this postponed census. Enumeration is significant in the process of delimitation, which conducts boundary adjustments of Parliamentary and State Legislative Constituencies based on changes in population. For this process to go on, up-to-date census data is required; otherwise, states that have experienced significant population increases may be underrepresented.

For example, the delimitation exercise, which determines the number of parliamentary and state legislative seats available to each state, is long overdue. States whose populations are booming might be disgruntledly underrepresented in the Lok Sabha and the state assemblies, and this would fuel regional tensions and dissent with the political system.

The new Women's Reservation Act, which reservations one-third of the seats in Parliament and state assemblies for women, also waits on delimitation. Without an updated census, the implementation of this law will be delayed and blur a little of Indian politics' best efforts to enhance gender representation.[5]

Political Considerations and the NPR Controversy

Politically, this has been another reason advanced for this delay in the process of the census. The National Population Register NPR is to be updated together with the census process. However, this has been a topic of debate for quite a while now. Critics argue that NPR can result in the preparation of NRC, bring humiliation, and further alienation for the marginalized communities, particularly the Muslims.

The political implications of the NPR are also furthering the delay in the census process. A fierce debate is going on whether caste data should be included or not. Many political and social circles have been demanding a caste census to deal with issues of social and economic inequality. The center has also been varying in the inclusion of caste data due to administrative hassles involved. This tug-of-war between state and central governments has further complicated this already belated census process.[6]

Implications for Development and Welfare

The absence of an update of census data impacts the development indicators of India. Census data are a foundation for a preliminary understanding of basic social metrics like literacy rates, amenities availability, and economic disparities. This means that policymakers are working with outdated information in the absence of this data, which may lead to faulty policy decisions.

For instance, some welfare programs like the National Food Security Act 2013 rely on census data to decide who is and who is not eligible, and how the distribution should be done. This means some communities will not receive adequate support; those that have grown significantly since 2011 will be deprived, while others may get support to which they are no longer entitled. The lag also hampers the ability of India to monitor certain key demographic trends migration, aging, and urbanization. The government can't come up with effective plans for future infrastructure, social services, or economic growth based on the lack of accurate data. [7]

Challenges of Implementing the Digital Census

While a digital census holds promise in terms of saving some effort and cost, it is beset by several challenges. For instance, India has a considerable digital divide across the country, and rural and urban splits, women, and weaker sections face less access to technology, which might lead to under-reporting of these populations or erroneous data.

The government must ensure data privacy and Cyber security of digital census. Given the recent incidents of data breaches in India, the citizens may not have confidence in participating in a digital census, with a fear that their private information could be used against their will.

Among the issues identified by local authorities, one relates to the ability of the officers to acclimate to the digitalized system. Training and resource provision ought to be provided for accuracy and efficient delivery during the census process.[8]

No Population census-in the dark without vital data

Long delays in holding the Indian Census, which was scheduled for 2021 but has been postponed three years so far. The delay has raised questions on the lack of up-to-date, accurate population data, a pre-requisite to attempts at trying to understand changes that are happening socially in concepts such as employment, education, and health in an increasingly globalized world and now, post-COVID-19. While other officials suggest replacing the full census with alternative ways to collect population data, they fail to capture the detail of information a full census captures. The article argues that based on reliance on data that does not take place within the specified time frame and based on conducts such as the National Family Health Survey and the Periodic Labour Force Survey.

It, thus, underscores the necessity of having current census data, mainly because there has been quite a demographic shift in India over the last decade or so. For example, it is an opinion that the delay was politically motivated; that is, even though people support a caste census, this seems a push rather politically driven than genuinely aimed at development. Therefore, the article concludes that unless there is current census data, the government would misrepresent progress, and nothing beats the urgency to conduct the census.[9]

Conclusion

This is indeed a very important step in reducing the data gap in the country's collections since it hampers the ability of the government to make informed policy decisions as well as proper resource allocation. A digital census promises modernization but is also going to raise issues related to accessibility, privacy, and accuracy. These challenges are very big and need to be addressed by the government to minimize the impact of the delay as well as the proper management of the digital census. The resumption of the census process is highly important to the country concerning its development, political representation, and welfare programs to be executed in a timely and transparent manner.

REFERENCE

1. Nivedita Saju, The Next Census is Nowhere in Sight and the Delay is Costing More and More https://www.thequint.com/news/india/census-2021-delay-population-policy#read-more (accessed on oct 20.2024)

2. Rau’s IAS study circle, The Delay of the 2021 Census and Its Implications, https://compass.rauias.com/current-affairs/delay-2021-census-implications/ (accessed on Oct 19.2024)

3. Deepanshu Mohan & Najam Us Saqib, Concerns about India’s first digital but delayed census, https://www.downtoearth.org.in/governance/concerns-about-indias-first-digital-but-delayed-census (visited on oct 20.2024)

4. S. Irudaya Rajan & U.S.Mishra, No Population census-in the dark without vital data, The Hindu, August 10, 2024, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/no-population-census-in-the-dark-without-vital-data/article68506772.ece (last visited on October 11, 2024)

5. Abhipedia, Impact of the indefinite delay of the 2021 census, available on, https://abhipedia.abhimanu.com/Article/IAS/NDkyNjUx/Impact-of-the-Indefinite-Delay-of-the-2021-Census- (accessed on oct 20.2024)

6. The Hindustan time, Modi govt to begin delayed census in September, results expected by 2026: Report, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/modi-govt-to-begin-delayed-census-in-september-results-expected-by-2026-report-101724250437715.html (accessed on Oct. 19.2024)

7. Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya, Sushant Kumar, India's indefinitely delayed census https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01477-0/fulltext, (accessed on Oct 20, 2024)

8. Rudolph Lambert Fernandez, Why India’s Delayed Census Evokes Anxiety More ThanAnticipation,https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/why-indias-delayed-census-evokes-anxiety-more-than-anticipation/, (accessed on Oct 20 .2024)

9. Priscilla Jebaraj, Impact of delay in census 2021 https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/explained-impact-of-delay-in-census-2021/article35951657.ece (accessed on oct 20.2024)

[1] Rau’s IAS study circle, The Delay of the 2021 Census and Its Implications, https://compass.rauias.com/current-affairs/delay-2021-census-implications/ (accessed on oct 19.2024)

[2] Najam Us Saqib, Deepanshu Mohan, Concerns about India’s first digital but delayed census, https://www.downtoearth.org.in/governance/concerns-about-indias-first-digital-but-delayed-census (accessed on oct 19.2024)

[3] The Hindustan time, Modi govt to begin delayed census in September, results expected by 2026: Report, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/modi-govt-to-begin-delayed-census-in-september-results-expected-by-2026-report-101724250437715.html (accessed on oct.19.2024)

[4] Nivedita Saju, The Next Census is Nowhere in Sight and the Delay is Costing More and More https://www.thequint.com/news/india/census-2021-delay-population-policy (accessed on oct 20.2024)

[5] Nivedita Saju, The Next Census is Nowhere in Sight, and the Delay is Costing More and More, how is a Delayed Census Impacting Government Policies in India? https://www.thequint.com/news/india/census-2021-delay-population-policy#read-more (accessed on oct 20.2024)

[6] Tirtho Banerjee, India's population census postponed again. What does the delay mean? https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/india-population-census-postponed-again-what-does-the-delay-mean-2319535-2023-01-10 (accessed on oct 20. 2024)

[7] Policy Circle Bureau, A nation in the dark: Census delay risks India’s future, https://www.policycircle.org/policy/india-census-2021-and-policy/ , (accessed on oct 20.2024).

[8] Deepanshu Mohan & Najam Us Saqib, Concerns about India’s first digital but delayed census https://www.downtoearth.org.in/governance/concerns-about-indias-first-digital-but-delayed-census (accessed on oct 20.2024)

[9] S. Irudaya Rajan & U.S. Mishra, No Population census-in the dark without vital data, The Hindu, August 10,2024, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/no-population-census-in-the-dark-without-vital-data/article68506772.ece (last visited on October 11, 2024)